Economic sentiment in the EU declines for the second month in a row

Second consecutive decline

Economic sentiment in the European Union and the eurozone weakened in October for the second month in a row, according to the European Commission's October survey published on Thursday. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell by 0.6 points compared with September, to 96.9 points in both the 27-member EU and the single-currency area.

Sectors and largest economies

The decline was driven by deteriorating confidence in all surveyed sectors except industry, which posted a slight increase of 0.3 points, thanks to more positive assessments of finished goods inventories as well as a marked improvement in assessments of past production and the export order book. Confidence in the services sector fell by 0.7 points: managers gave worse assessments of past demand and the current business situation, although demand expectations for the next three months improved. Consumer confidence dropped by 1.2 points, the second consecutive monthly decline: households assessed their financial situation more negatively and reduced their intentions to make major purchases. Confidence in retail trade fell by 1.7 points and in construction by 0.9 points, where a marked deterioration in employment expectations outweighed an improvement in the order book. Among the EU's largest economies, sentiment fell sharply in the Netherlands (−3.4 points), declined in Germany (−0.7) and Spain (−0.5), while it rose by 0.8 points in Italy and remained virtually unchanged in Poland and France.

Employment, prices and uncertainty

Against the backdrop of the overall decline, the employment expectations indicator improved: it rose by 0.6 points to 98.9 in the EU and by 0.7 points to 98.2 in the eurozone, thanks to stronger hiring plans in retail trade and industry. Price expectations for sales rose noticeably in industry, retail, construction and services, moving above their long-term averages in all four sectors. At the same time, the economic uncertainty indicator jumped by 1.7 points to 19.8: companies reported greater uncertainty about their prospects, while consumers' financial uncertainty reached its highest level since April 2025.