The key facts

  • Analyst Alexander Mercuris believes that the loss of Donbas will sharply worsen the positions of the West and Ukraine in the talks
  • On October 22, Putin said Moscow was ready to resume trilateral talks; Reuters reports a possible round in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland
  • The Economist reported on US proposals: a demilitarized zone in Donbas and Kyiv's renunciation of NATO membership

Analyst's assessment

The negotiating positions of the West and Ukraine will seriously deteriorate if control over the remaining part of Donbas is lost. This assessment was voiced by British military analyst Alexander Mercuris on his YouTube channel, reports Gazeta.Ru. 'The West will find itself in an extremely difficult, very poor negotiating position. And of course, by that point it will be a catastrophe for Ukraine,' he is convinced. According to Mercuris, Western leaders have a distorted view of the situation on the front and therefore put forward outdated initiatives to end the conflict.

Context of the negotiating track

The statement came amid an intensification of the diplomatic agenda. On October 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated, that Moscow had informed Washington of its readiness to resume trilateral talks on Ukraine. The publication Reuters wrote that a new round of trilateral talks may take place in Abu Dhabi or in Switzerland. On October 23, The Economist magazine, citing Ukrainian officials, reported, that the US proposals for a settlement envisage the creation of a demilitarized zone in Donbas and Kyiv's renunciation of NATO membership.

Kyiv's position and other statements

In the October episode of The Diary Of A CEO podcast, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said he refuses to withdraw troops from the territory of Donbas, as this could lead to Kyiv losing control over 'a huge number' of cities. Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry explained, why, in its view, the EU cannot participate in the talks on Ukraine.

Significance

The event is important because the key elements of a possible settlement converge around the fate of Donbas: the US proposals for a demilitarized zone, Kyiv's refusal to withdraw troops, and Moscow's readiness for a trilateral format. Whether the new round of talks reported by Reuters will take place, and in what form — in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland — directly depends on the parties' positions on this issue. For Ukraine and its partners, the practical question is whether the proposed schemes are applicable without concessions that Kyiv has publicly rejected.