The key facts

  • Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas since 1994
  • Talarico's campaign raised nearly $129 million against nearly $20 million for Paxton, but outside groups spent $202 million in support of Paxton
  • Total spending on the Texas Senate race exceeded half a billion dollars

Voting in Austin and a bet on faith and populism

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico voted on Friday in Austin, the capital of Texas. According to AFP, his combination of Christian faith and economic populism could, Democrats hope, lead to a historic victory and end three decades of Republican dominance in the state. The opponent of the 37-year-old former teacher is Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a staunch ally of President Donald Trump. The race has become one of the most closely watched in next week's elections, which AFP assesses could give Democrats control of Congress.

Even polls and a rally in Galveston

Polls show an even contest, giving supporters hope that Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas since 1994. 'This is the moment when we give it everything we've got. We are the underdogs. It's David versus Goliath,' Talarico said at a rally on Thursday in Galveston, a Republican stronghold on the Texas coast. One rally attendee, 75-year-old Noel, told AFP that he had been a Republican all his life until Trump became president: 'This party has gone mad. They left me, I didn't leave them.' Talarico himself invites the right to join: 'Conservatives, real conservatives, are welcome in this movement,' and says he unites Texans 'of all backgrounds and beliefs' against 'a broken, corrupt political system'.

Record spending on the race

Talarico's campaign raised nearly $129 million — more than six times the nearly $20 million donated to Paxton's campaign, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data. However, according to the website PaidForPolitics, outside groups spent $202 million in support of Paxton versus $55 million in support of Talarico. 'They have already poured more than $200 million into our state to stop our movement. That is more than any Senate race in American history,' Talarico said. According to an investigation by VoteLog, a non-profit organization focused on political accountability, total spending on the Texas Senate race exceeded half a billion dollars, taking into account the primaries and the general election.

Young voters and a bet on 'top versus bottom'

In Houston, Talarico met with college students — among the youngest voters in the United States. 23-year-old Bo Matthews told AFP that he first saw the candidate in YouTube Reels and found him inspiring. 21-year-old Maya Guerra, the daughter of Latino migrants — a community heavily affected by Trump's immigration campaign, called Talarico a source of hope. Tracy Gibson, chair of the Democratic Party of Harris County, which includes most of Houston, said Trump did the party a favor by urging voters to vote as if he himself were on the ballot: 'Challenge accepted. We will vote you out of here along with the rest of the Republicans.' According to her, Talarico's message 'crosses party lines': 'This is not the left versus the right. It is the top versus the bottom.'

Why it matters

The outcome of the Texas race directly affects the balance of power in Congress: according to AFP, a Democratic victory could limit Trump's legislative options for the rest of his term. For voters in the state, the record cost of the campaign — over half a billion dollars according to VoteLog — also has practical significance, making this race the most expensive in the history of U.S. Senate elections, according to the candidate himself. The outcome is still unknown: polls show only an even contest, and the elections themselves will take place next week.