The key facts
- UN Secretary-General Guterres: achieving the 1.5 °C goal is unlikely, the consequences are already catastrophic.
- UNEP: to keep warming at 1.7–1.8 °C, emissions must fall by more than 6% per year until 2035.
- Renewable energy is developing faster than forecasts, but under current policies warming could reach 2.8 °C by 2100.
Exceeding the 1.5 °C goal is practically inevitable
As Tagesschau reports, citing the UN, the world will almost certainly exceed the agreed warming limit of 1.5 °C compared with the pre-industrial era. This limit was enshrined at the climate conference in Paris in 2015. More than ten years later, UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted that the probability of achieving this goal is low, although there is a certain shift in the fight against climate change. The publication emphasizes that the time for taking decisive action is running out.
The consequences are already devastating
According to Guterres, the consequences of climate change have already taken on a catastrophic character: deadly floods, extreme heat waves, large-scale forest fires, human casualties, a paralyzed economy and growing inequality. 'Those who are least to blame suffer first and most,' he said. That is why, the article notes, it is important that the indicator of exceeding the 1.5 °C limit be as small as possible.
UNEP data on the required emission reductions
According to a report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), in order for warming to be only 1.7–1.8 °C by mid-century — just a few tenths of a degree above the limit — global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by more than 6% per year until 2035 relative to the 2025 level. In reality, emissions are growing year by year, and the main factor remains the burning of coal, oil and gas.
Is there reason for optimism
UNEP head Inger Andersen asserts that the achievements of recent years prove that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is still possible. According to her, since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy capacity and electricity generation have grown three times faster than expected. The development of solar energy, in particular photovoltaic devices, outpaced forecasts sevenfold, and the growth of coal use for electricity generation turned out to be lower than expected.
The role of policy and the end-of-century forecast
The report states that the most effective way to change the situation is decisive policy. However, if governments continue to act as before, by the end of the century global warming could reach 2.8 °C.
