The key facts
- Border Security Commander Duncan Capps warned the House of Commons committee of the likelihood of mass deaths in the English Channel
- Record: 230 migrants on a single 'mega-boat'; smugglers are moving from the Calais and Dunkirk area to Normandy
- There are about 3,800 migrants in northern France — twice as many as two years ago; a £660 million UK-France agreement is in force
Warning of mass deaths
A mass casualty incident involving migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats is 'only a matter of time', said the head of the UK border security service Duncan Capps at a meeting of the parliament's Home Affairs Committee. According to him, what worries him most is the increase in the size of boats and the number of people on board: this year a record 230 migrants were spotted on a vessel described as a 'mega inflatable boat'. 'It is only a matter of time before an event with mass casualties occurs in the English Channel. It is surprising that this has not happened yet,' The National quoted Capps as saying.
Smugglers' tactics and the shifting route
Capps explained the growing capacity of boats as an adaptation of smugglers' tactics in response to the actions of British and French authorities aimed at blocking the supply of vessels. According to him, smugglers are now moving further south — from the Dunkirk and Calais area to Normandy — to avoid interception while delivering boats to launch sites on beaches. He added that his goal for the next two to three months is to close off this route together with French partners, since it stretches almost 60 nautical miles, and crossing attempts in winter could lead to loss of life.
Migrant numbers and the agreement with France
According to Capps, there are currently about 3,800 migrants in northern France, mostly living in a squalid camp near Dunkirk — twice as many as roughly two years ago. He linked this to the fact that the French authorities have made crossing the English Channel significantly more difficult. At the same time, the number of arrivals has fallen to its lowest level since 2020 and may drop to the 2019 level, yet the risks to asylum seekers themselves are growing. The UK and France signed a three-year agreement worth £660 million ($891 million) to prevent English Channel crossings, which, it is noted, contributed to the reduction in numbers. Capps, a former army general and former head of the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, heads the Border Security Command, created by the Labour government after winning the 2024 election to combat people-smuggling gangs.
