The key facts

  • O'Leary predicts airfare growth in Europe of 10–20% in 2027
  • The jet fuel price in Europe and the CIS reached $207.61 per barrel (+128% year-on-year, IATA data)
  • Ryanair is cutting 20 routes and 1.1 million seats in Belgium due to a tax increase from €2 to €7

Forecast of record airfare increases

Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary told Euronews that in 2027 airfares in Europe will rise significantly due to growing aviation fuel prices. Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on 20 October, he said: 'Next year in Europe you will see airfare growth, I think, of 10, 15, possibly 20%. Over the next 12 months we will witness, I would say, the biggest rise in air travel prices in Europe's entire history.' He also criticised European environmental taxes which, according to him, increase airlines' costs.

Fuel and hedging

According to monitoring by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the average jet fuel price in Europe and CIS countries for the week ending 16 October was $207.61 per barrel — almost 128% higher than a year earlier. O'Leary noted that many European airlines, including Ryanair, had significant hedge positions until the end of 2026, but from April 2027 the protection is substantially reduced. According to him, Ryanair locked in its fuel price this year at around $67 per barrel, but 'next year our oil price will double.' 'We will be left without hedging on roughly 85% of volumes next year, and most other European airlines will find themselves in a similar position,' he added.

Oil rises amid the war in Iran

Prices for oil and petroleum products, including jet fuel, rose sharply after the start of the war in Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, traded on Wednesday at $109.86 — near a five-month high. Rising fuel prices are squeezing the margins of airlines without hedge protection.

Reduction of operations in Belgium

O'Leary came to Brussels to announce a major reduction of Ryanair's operations in Belgium ahead of an increase in the country's aviation levy from €2 to €7 in January 2027. The airline is cutting 20 routes and 1.1 million seats in its winter schedule from Belgium, citing the tax increase, and is relocating six aircraft to European markets with lower costs. In O'Leary's view, in addition to rising fuel costs, the number of available seats will also shrink in 2027 due to bankruptcies and consolidations in the European aviation market.