The key facts
- Bolton believes Armenia's EU accession in the foreseeable future is unlikely and advises betting on trade relations with the West.
- Since October 10, the EU has granted Armenia temporary trade preferences for two years, covering about 80% of Armenian exports.
- In August, Pashinyan announced preparations for an EU membership application, assuring Putin that this does not contradict EAEU membership.
Bolton's view on membership prospects
Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton, in a conversation with Russian pranksters Vovan and Lexus, expressed doubt that Armenia will be able to join the European Union in the foreseeable future. In his assessment, Yerevan should focus on developing trade relations with Western countries rather than waiting for membership. He pointed to the difficulties faced by other candidates, citing as examples some former Yugoslav republics, Moldova, and Ukraine.
Proposals for economic cooperation
Instead of waiting for membership, Bolton proposed expanding economic cooperation: in his view, European countries could open their markets more actively to Armenian goods, and Washington could consider concluding additional trade agreements with Yerevan. He also referred to the concern of Armenian Americans about the situation in the republic and expressed doubts about the implementation of the agreements that US President Donald Trump presents as his own diplomatic achievement. In the same conversation, Bolton reacted positively to the possible withdrawal of the Russian military base from the territory of Armenia.
Current EU trade preferences
Since October 10, the European Union has already introduced temporary trade preferences for Armenia for a period of two years. They provide for the reduction or elimination of tariffs on a number of goods, including agricultural products. The preferences cover about 80% of Armenian exports to the EU, although restrictions and quotas apply to certain categories.
Context: membership application and risks of leaving the EAEU
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced in August the preparation of an official application for EU membership, presenting the government's program for 2026–2031. At the same time, in September he assured Vladimir Putin that Yerevan sees no contradiction between participation in the EAEU and the course toward European integration. Joining the EU would require leaving the EAEU, which, according to Life.ru, threatens Armenian producers with the loss of duty-free access to the markets of Russia and other union countries. In 2025, Armenia exported $3.2 billion worth of goods to EAEU countries and imported $5 billion. Among the mentioned risks are businesses adapting to European standards, rising prices for certain goods, and increased trade disputes with Moscow; access to the EU market does not guarantee quick compensation for losses.
