Ifop poll: Le Pen could win 68% of votes in the second round of the French election

According to an Ifop poll published on October 21, 2026, leader of the National Rally Marine Le Pen could win a decisive victory in the 2027 French presidential election. In a hypothetical second round against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she receives 68% of the vote, showing a maximum advantage of 36 points. In the first round, her support is estimated at 34–38%. At the same time, the approval rating of incumbent President Emmanuel Macron has fallen to 15%, and the figures of candidates of the political center are declining.

Javlon TursunovFirst published on tafs uz 24 October 2026 at 00:492 min read

The key facts

An Ifop poll predicts Marine Le Pen's victory in the second round of the 2027 election with 68% of the vote against Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The approval rating of incumbent President Emmanuel Macron has fallen to 15%, while negative assessments of his performance have reached 82%.
Support for candidates of the political center, such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, is declining against the backdrop of Le Pen's growing popularity.

Le Pen's lead in hypothetical 2027 election scenarios

According to a poll conducted by the research institute Ifop, the leader of the National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, shows a significant advantage over all potential rivals in the second round of the French presidential election scheduled for 2027. The study, published on October 21, 2026, citing BFMTV data, shows that in the most likely scenario of a run-off against the leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Le Pen could receive 68% of the vote against 32% for her opponent. The 36-percentage-point gap is the largest among the scenarios considered.

First-round results and rivals' figures

In the first round of the election, Le Pen is projected to receive between 34% and 38% of the vote, depending on the field of candidates. Her closest competitor at this stage is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose figures are estimated in the range of 15–20%. Other candidates show lower results: former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, whose support fell from 21% at the end of September to 15% in October, could count on 15% of the vote. Gabriel Attal is projected at 13%. In the event of advancing to the second round against Philippe, Le Pen receives 56% against 44%.

Scenarios against other politicians and Macron's falling rating

In other simulated duels, Le Pen retains her lead: 57% against Raphaël Glucksmann, 58% against Gabriel Attal, and 59% against François Hollande. Alongside Le Pen's growing popularity, a record fall in the approval rating of incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is recorded. According to the October Ipsos BVA-CESI study, 82% of the French assess his performance negatively, and his overall approval rating has fallen to 15%. The main reasons for dissatisfaction cited are economic problems, public debt, and declining purchasing power. Macron is not eligible to run in 2027 due to term limits.

Methodology of the study and the candidate's legal status

The Ifop poll was conducted from October 17 to 19, 2026, among 1,928 registered voters. Earlier, in July 2026, Marine Le Pen announced her intention to run in the election after a decision by an appeals court, which reduced her ineligibility period to 15 months, effectively meaning the removal of this restriction. However, part of the penalty in the form of a suspended prison sentence remained in force. The politician stated her intention to continue legal appeals and, in the event of victory, plans to appoint Jordan Bardella as prime minister.