The key facts
- According to the analyst's forecast, the Central Bank will keep the rate at 14% at the October 23 meeting
- No significant cut should be expected before the end of 2026 due to inflation expectations
- Only minor adjustments are possible — by fractions of a percentage point or up to 0.5 p.p.
Analyst's forecast
No significant cut in the key rate in Russia should be expected before the end of 2026. This forecast was given by financial analyst, Candidate of Economic Sciences Mikhail Novachuk in an interview with the online publication Podmoskovye Segodnya. In his opinion, the Bank of Russia will most likely keep the current 14% at the upcoming meeting on October 23.
Reasons for the pause
The expert named high inflation expectations of Russians as the main obstacle to easing monetary policy. In his view, cutting the rate under current conditions would contradict the Central Bank's chosen strategy of curbing price growth. At the same time, Novachuk does not rule out small adjustments before the end of the year: this could mean a cut by fractions of a percentage point or by 0.5 percentage points, but he does not forecast a noticeable cheapening of money. The economist also sees no prerequisites for drastic decisions by the regulator: the current macroeconomic situation, fiscal policy and external factors, in his assessment, do not yet require an emergency revision of the Central Bank's course.
Context of the regulator's decisions
The last time the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia considered the rate issue was on September 11. At that time, the indicator was left at 14% per annum, citing increased price pressure. The regulator will announce its next decision on October 23 at 13:30 Moscow time. Earlier, as Life.ru notes, a director of a financial company estimated the probability of keeping the rate at the October meeting at about 80%, and the chances of a cut to 13.75% at 20%, suggesting that the pause could last until the end of the year.
