The key facts

  • The FAO food price index in September reached 136 points — the highest since November 2022.
  • Wheat rose in price by more than 30%, rice in the main Asian exporting countries by 10–13%, and bread in Egypt by 25%.
  • According to the World Bank, in 22% of the 150 countries analyzed, food price growth exceeded overall inflation in the September quarter.

Pressure on the global food system

According to the Reuters news agency, citing the chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Máximo Torero, several factors are simultaneously putting pressure on the global food system, which particularly affects the populations of low- and middle-income countries. According to the World Bank, in 22% of the 150 countries analyzed, food price growth exceeded overall inflation in the September quarter. The FAO food price index in September averaged 136 points — the highest figure since November 2022.

Price rises in individual countries

In Indonesia, due to an expected delay in the seasonal rains, the price of rice has approached a record level. In Egypt, bread has risen in price by 25%. In India, where monsoon rains turned out to be the weakest in more than the last ten years, the price of sugar reached a historic maximum.

Geopolitical factors and logistics

The rise in prices is influenced by attacks on grain infrastructure in the Black Sea, which have led to disruptions in wheat supplies. Instability in the Red Sea is forcing ships to take longer and more expensive routes around Africa. Military-political tension raises fuel prices and hinders fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing production costs in agriculture. On some important sea routes, freight tariffs have risen by approximately 50% due to rising oil prices and additional costs associated with military risks.

Price dynamics of major crops

According to the reported data, the price of wheat has risen by more than 30%, while in the main rice-exporting countries in Asia, rice has become more expensive by 10–13%.

Rising costs for producers

Food producers report rising costs for raw materials and logistics. Bakery owners in Cairo reported that, along with flour, expenses for electricity, water, yeast, and labor are growing.