The key facts
- Amazon deforestation: 3,335 sq. km over the year — lowest since 1988, down 41.8%
- Fires tripled after October 4; authorities are investigating deliberate arson
- Second round of elections on October 25: Flavio Bolsonaro (47%) vs Lula (45%)
Record-low deforestation rate
The Brazilian government announced that annual forest loss in the Amazon from August 2025 to July 2026 totaled 3,335 sq. km according to official satellite monitoring — the lowest level since observations began in 1988 and 41.8% less than the 5,731 sq. km of the previous year. According to official data, under President Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022) deforestation rose by about 60%, with more than 45,000 sq. km cleared, while under Lula da Silva since 2023 deforestation has fallen by 71%.
The PPCDAm policy
One of Lula's first steps after taking office in January 2023 was to revive the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), launched in 2004 during his first term and dismantled under Bolsonaro. Marina Silva, who had headed the Environment Ministry until resigning in April to run for Congress, and her former deputy, current minister Joao Paulo Capobianco, returned to implement it. The plan rests on four pillars: monitoring and enforcement, a sustainable economy, management of protected areas, and norms and financial incentives. Measures included restoring sanctions for illegal deforestation detected by satellite, a proposal to deny bank credit to plots with illegal clearing, additional funding for priority municipalities, and combating environmental crimes. Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory, called the figures released on October 16 proof that zero deforestation by 2030 is achievable without harming the economy: 'Agriculture is posting record production and export volumes despite the reduction in deforestation.'
Fires and El Niño
Forest degradation from fires, logging and drought affects about 40% of the Amazon and in recent years has outpaced clear-cut deforestation. A strong El Niño could intensify threats in 2026–2027 with hotter and drier conditions. The number of fires, which had been near historic lows, tripled from October 4 — the day of the first round of elections. Authorities are investigating whether the fires were deliberately set for political motives ahead of the second round. NASA scientists warn that official satellite data may understate the damage: preliminary analysis of Santarem found roughly 40% more fire hotspots than standard data show. NASA observations record a sharp increase in fires and smoke emissions in the central and eastern Amazon since September 2026 amid drought. Minister Capobianco reported that during overflights of protected areas, fire hotspots were arranged in geometric patterns, indicating deliberate arson; no perpetrators have been identified. Due to the smoke, schools were closed in Manaus and residents were advised to wear masks.
Elections and the risk of rollback
The second round on October 25 will pit Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president, who received 47% of the vote, against Lula with 45%. The candidates offer different approaches: Bolsonaro has promised to end illegal deforestation by 2029, a year earlier than the current target, while Lula has pledged zero net deforestation by 2030 with all losses offset through forest restoration. Cristiane Mazzetti of Greenpeace Brazil said that Congress is 'systematically working to weaken, delay and undermine' environmental laws, and that the next legislature will be even more hostile to the environmental agenda. Marina Silva said on October 16 that the drop in deforestation was a 'historic achievement' and stressed that the election outcome will be decisive for preserving it. According to her, the Jair Bolsonaro administration acted 'from a position of denial' and rolled back environmental policy, and Flavio inherited those views. Bolsonaro denied climate change while presenting himself as an environmental defender, without a concrete plan to protect the Amazon; environmentalists see his calls to 'modernize' environmental legislation as an attempt to weaken it. Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign stated: 'Flavio Bolsonaro is a defender of the environment and of those who preserve standing forests and clean rivers.'
