The key facts

  • ASML's Q3 revenue reached €11.66 billion (+55% year on year), net profit doubled to €5 billion
  • The company will not be able to meet demand in 2027–2028; customers are asking to book equipment for 2029–2030
  • The 2026 sales forecast has been raised to €44–45 billion, with a gross margin of about 56%

A record quarter on the wave of AI demand

Dutch ASML, the world's only manufacturer of EUV machines for producing the most advanced chips, reported on Wednesday a record quarterly revenue of €11.66 billion — 55% more than a year earlier. The figure was closer to the upper end of the company's own forecast (€11–12 billion) and roughly matched the average analyst expectation of €11.7 billion according to Bloomberg. Net profit more than doubled, reaching €5 billion, partly thanks to €510 million in income from stakes in other companies. Gross margin came in at 57.5%, beating the forecast, largely due to €3.3 billion in revenue from servicing and upgrading machines already installed at customers.

Demand outpaces production plans

ASML said its current production plans will not be able to fully satisfy customer demand in 2027 and 2028, as investments in artificial intelligence continue to increase the volume of orders. Customers keep raising their forecasts of equipment needs, and some want to book machines now for 2029 or 2030. In July, the company announced a 30% capacity expansion in 2027 for low-NA EUV systems and immersion DUV systems, and was also considering an additional 30% increase in 2028. CEO Christophe Fouquet said: 'We are looking at possibilities for further capacity expansion in 2028 beyond the previously announced 30% growth.' According to him, 'customers ask us every day to deliver more equipment to them.'

Raised forecast for 2026

ASML raised the lower end of its 2026 revenue forecast to €44–45 billion from the previously expected €43–45 billion, and its gross margin estimate to about 56% from 54–56%. The company estimates fourth-quarter sales at €14.2–15.2 billion. Quilter Cheviot analyst Ben Barringer noted that the company 'delivered impressive financial results, but essentially only caught up with the expectations the market had already priced in.' He added that sustained growth will continue in 2027–2028, but the market will begin to wonder about possible signs of a downturn after 2029.

Report amid a nervous week for AI stocks

The results were published after a volatile week for shares of AI-related companies. Last Thursday, chipmakers' quotes fell following a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annual revenue was roughly $20 billion (€17.8 billion) lower than the figures announced at the end of last month — mainly due to differences in calculation methodology. On Tuesday, shares of Asian semiconductor companies fell after Broadcom chief Hock Tan said that many AI investors do not fully understand what they are investing in; at the same time, reports of Chinese CXMT's progress in developing denser memory heightened concerns about competition and pressure on prices. ASML shares in Amsterdam on Wednesday around 10:00 CEST were up more than 3%. Since chipmakers order ASML equipment far in advance, investors use its forecasts as an indicator of the sustainability of AI spending. An investor call took place at 15:00 CEST on Wednesday; on Thursday, Taiwan's TSMC — the largest contract chipmaker and a key ASML customer — will present its report.