The key facts
- IOM and the Danish Refugee Council forecast the displacement of 874,319 people in Somalia from October to December, 92% due to floods.
- The greatest threat is to Belet Weyne (about 229,000 people) and Galkayo (about 82,000).
- IOM has raised only 14.4% of the required $16.62 million for preparedness and response.
Forecast of large-scale displacement
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) warned on Wednesday that nearly 874,000 people in Somalia could be displaced over the next three months due to heavy rains and rising rivers. The forecast, developed jointly with the Danish Refugee Council, estimates the number of potentially displaced at 874,319 people between October and December, with floods accounting for 92% of that total. These are communities that have already suffered from drought and repeated displacement.
Words from the head of the IOM mission
“We are looking at the possibility of hundreds of thousands of people losing their homes in just a few weeks,” said Manuel Marques Pereira, head of the IOM mission in Somalia.
Context: rainy season and El Niño
The warning came as Somalia enters its rainy season, which is forecast to bring above-normal rainfall amid intensifying El Niño conditions.
Most vulnerable areas
According to IOM, Belet Weyne and Galkayo face the greatest threat: there, the risk of displacement endangers approximately 229,000 and 82,000 people respectively. Rising river levels and heavy rains are already threatening communities, and floods could destroy crops, contaminate water sources and disrupt access to healthcare.
Funding shortfall
IOM reported that it has secured only 14.4% of the required $16.62 million for flood preparedness and response; these funds are intended to help more than 517,000 people. The organization called for immediate international funding to strengthen early warning systems, prepare evacuation routes, and provide emergency shelter, clean water and sanitation.
