The key facts

  • Ukraine announced the successful completion of the autumn stage of Operation 'Vivaldi': 277 sq. km and 16 settlements have been retaken
  • The analysts differ in their assessments of Lyman's status and the report on the capture of Dobropillya
  • Both sides are increasing pressure with strikes on rear facilities: oil facilities, data centers, Kyiv, facilities linked to nuclear power plants

Kyiv's statements about the successes of the counteroffensive

On October 14, a representative of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps announced the successful completion of the autumn stage of Operation 'Vivaldi'. According to him, the Ukrainian army has retaken 277 square kilometers of territory and 16 settlements from Russia. Analyst Kamoliddin Rabbimov notes that Russia has included four Ukrainian regions in its constitution, yet not all of the territories declared as Russian are actually under its control. Vladimir Putin's key condition is tied to Donbas: Russia must occupy this region, or Ukraine must hand it over — only then, according to this logic, is an end to the war possible. Ukraine is fundamentally against handing over Donbas and is mobilizing all its capabilities and resources for this direction.

The significance of Donbas and the battles near Lyman

In Rabbimov's view, the battles around Lyman are one of the most important points of the war for both sides. It is telling that even a war-weary Ukraine, with limited military resources and uncertainty about assistance from the United States, is capable of retaking individual territories. Abduvali Soyibnazarov, however, disagrees with reports that the city of Lyman has come out of Russian control: in his assessment, Ukraine may have mobilized large forces in Donbas and occupied the forest areas around Lyman, but the main part of the city remains under Russian control.

Doubts about the report on Dobropillya

Soyibnazarov also questioned the report by the chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, to Putin, which claimed the capture of Dobropillya — one of the important cities on the border between Donbas and Dnipropetrovsk region. According to the analyst, Russian media and Z-bloggers have repeatedly criticized official reports before.

The tactics of strikes on the rear

Rabbimov highlights an important feature of the current war — pressure through escalation. Neither side is achieving decisive superiority on the front line: Ukraine cannot quickly retake all the occupied territories, while Russia is having difficulty fully capturing the remaining part of Donbas. Under these conditions, the sides strike at facilities in the enemy's rear: Ukraine attacks Russian oil enterprises and data centers, Russia strikes Kyiv and other territories, and in some cases facilities linked to nuclear power plants come under attack. The goal of such actions is to achieve through rear strikes what could not be achieved at the front, to weaken the enemy's economic capabilities and influence its internal stability, intensifying public discontent and political pressure. Rabbimov notes that this is not a new phenomenon in wars, but in modern escalation conflicts, strikes on the rear and fomenting social discontent have become one of the instruments of coercing the enemy into concessions.