The key facts
- Shokhin: he does not expect a hike at the October 23 meeting, the CBR's rhetoric will be 'hawkish'
- He sees a resumption of rate cuts only next year
- Analysts expect the rate to stay at 14%, with deposit yields around 13%
Shokhin's forecast
The Bank of Russia, in the view of the president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin, will keep the key rate unchanged at the board of directors meeting on October 23. He said this, as reported by Interfax. In his assessment, the regulator will not go for a rate hike, but the CBR's rhetoric will probably be 'hawkish, probably'.
When a cut is possible
Answering the question of when the trend toward rate cuts might resume, Shokhin noted: 'Probably next year for sure. This year — I doubt it.' Thus, the RSPP head allows for a resumption of policy easing no earlier than next year.
Analysts' expectations
Economists and financial analysts surveyed by Gazeta.Ru also believe that the CBR will most likely keep the key rate at 14% at the October 23 meeting. For depositors, this means deposit yields remaining around 13%; for borrowers, consumer loans and market-rate mortgages will remain expensive. According to the outlet's assessment, the pause in key rate cuts could last until the end of the year.
Context
Earlier, an economist assessed the probability of a key rate hike by the end of 2026. The Bank of Russia board of directors meeting in question is scheduled for October 23.
