The key facts

  • Inflation in October fell from 15.1% to 14.5% (Central Bank data)
  • Expectations: 13.2% in a year, 12.2% in five years
  • The Central Bank's baseline scenario is a return to 4% in 2027

Expectations fell in October

Russians' inflation expectations fell sharply in October — these are the results of an inFO survey conducted on commission from the Bank of Russia. According to the Central Bank's data, annual inflation in October declined from 15.1% to 14.5%. Respondents expect inflation to be 13.2% in a year and 12.2% in five years.

Gap between population groups

Expected inflation among Russians with savings fell from 12.8% in September to 11.6% in October. Among those without savings, the figure decreased from 15.4% to 14.6%. Inflation expectations are forecasts by the population, businesses, analysts, and financial markets regarding the future pace of price growth.

Forecasts for 2027

Assistant to a State Duma deputy Ilya Mosyagin forecast a slowdown of inflation in the second half of 2027 — in his assessment, the effect will become apparent as familiar goods and services begin to rise in price more slowly. He clarified that this refers to a slowdown in the pace of price growth, not a mandatory cheapening of the entire consumer basket. According to him, the Bank of Russia's baseline scenario assumes a return of annual inflation to 4% in 2027, and under an unfavorable scenario, inflation for 2027 will be 4.5–5.5%. Earlier in Russia, a fall in the dollar exchange rate to 60 rubles was also considered possible.