Analysts give a dollar exchange rate forecast until mid-November

Ranges from two analysts

Spartak Sobolev, head of the investment strategy research department at Alfa-Forex, told RT that from the beginning of the current week the dollar will fluctuate in the range of 79.8 to 83.9 rubles (the publication text also states the date 'until mid-October', which contradicts the headline about a forecast until mid-November). Stock market expert at BCS World of Investments Andrei Smirnov earlier, in a conversation with Gazeta.Ru gave a narrower weekly forecast: the dollar at 80–82 rubles, the euro at 89–91 rubles, and the yuan at 12–12.5 rubles. By the end of the year, in his estimate, the American currency will return to 83–85 rubles.

What supports the ruble

Sobolev links the ruble's strength to the high interest rate and positive expectations regarding the talks in Abu Dhabi, as well as to the Finance Ministry's replenishment of gold and foreign currency reserves under the budget rule. According to him, inflation is rising in Europe and the US, and a noticeable slump in the American stock market supports interest in the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Smirnov also emphasizes that the key rate left unchanged keeps the ruble from weakening amid seasonal intensification of imports and large currency purchases by the Finance Ministry.

Oil and the end of the year

Oil also affects the exchange rate: according to Sobolev, Brent is trading around $100 per barrel, while the Russian export grade Urals is losing value more noticeably — moving toward $70 per barrel. In December, Smirnov notes, a traditional surge in spending by consumers and companies is expected, and investors will build up currency positions ahead of the long holidays — this is how he explains his forecast of the ruble weakening by the end of the year. Earlier, as Gazeta.Ru recalls, a financier explained whether the results of the US elections would affect Russians' money.