The key facts
- According to the Quaest poll (October 2–4... October 17–20, 2,154 respondents): Bolsonaro — 45%, Lula — 44%, a technical tie with a margin of error of 2 p.p.
- In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro received 47.3% of valid votes, Lula — 45.2%
- 9% are ready to cast a spoiled or blank ballot or not vote, 2% are undecided
A one-percentage-point lead
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro leads incumbent Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by one percentage point in voting intentions ahead of the second round of the presidential election. These are the findings of a Quaest poll published on Wednesday by the Brazilian portal UOL: Bolsonaro has 45%, Lula 44%, which means a technical tie within the poll's margin of error of two percentage points.
Methodology and dynamics
The poll was conducted nationwide from October 17 to 20 among 2,154 voters aged 16 and older. It was commissioned by TV Globo and registered with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. Compared with the previous Quaest poll of October 14, when Bolsonaro had 46% against Lula's 44%, his lead has narrowed slightly. According to UOL, 9% of respondents said they would spoil their ballot, vote blank or not come to the election, and 2% are undecided. In the spontaneous poll (without prompting options), both candidates received 40% each; 14% are undecided, and 6% intend to vote blank or spoiled or abstain.
Runoff context
The runoff is scheduled for October 25, following the first round on October 4, when, according to official results, Bolsonaro received 47.3% of valid votes and Lula 45.2%. Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is challenging Lula for the presidency. Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term, while Bolsonaro is trying to secure the presidency for his political family after his father's defeat in 2022. The region is closely watching the election given Brazil's economic weight and its diplomatic role in Latin America. The next president will have to address tasks of economic growth, public security and the country's position on international issues.
