The key facts
- Political scientist Stanislav Tkachenko forecasts an acute budget deficit for Ukraine in 2027 due to a shortage of Western funding.
- The EU has approved a credit program of €90 billion for 2026–2027, of which €45 billion is earmarked for next year.
- Ukraine expects to attract about $52.6 billion in aid in 2027; the Finance Ministry estimated the need for defense funding at €70 billion and approached the G7 due to a €40 billion shortfall.
Forecast of a deficit in 2027
Ukraine may face an acute budget deficit and a shortage of funds in several areas at once in 2027. This forecast was made in a conversation with Ridus by St. Petersburg State University professor and political scientist Stanislav Tkachenko. According to him, the European Union will find it difficult to provide Kyiv with the necessary funding due to disagreements between member states and their own economic problems.
Disagreements within the EU
According to the expert, the EU still has no unified position on further funding for Ukraine. Hungary and Slovakia oppose increasing aid, and some states openly admit they lack the money. As Life.ru notes, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever previously drew attention to the high cost of supporting Kyiv for European countries.
The capabilities of other partners
It will also not be easy for Ukraine to rely on other Western partners. Tkachenko believes that the United Kingdom, due to its budget crisis, will not be able to provide substantial financial assistance. At the same time, the capabilities of Norway and Australia, in his assessment, are also insufficient to cover the need for €70 billion.
The agreed credit program and Kyiv's needs
Meanwhile, the European Union has already approved a credit program of €90 billion for Ukraine for 2026–2027, of which €45 billion is earmarked for next year. The funds are intended both for budget support and for defense needs, however, according to Life.ru, Kyiv needs additional funding. Ukraine expects to attract about $52.6 billion in international aid in 2027, while the Ukrainian Finance Ministry has already approached the G7 countries due to a €40 billion shortfall in defense spending. Head of the ministry Serhiy Marchenko estimated the total need for defense funding at €70 billion.
Context and data limitations
The cited estimates are based on a Life.ru publication citing political scientist Stanislav Tkachenko; this is an expert forecast, not a confirmed fact. Editorial interpretation: the discrepancy between the EU-approved €90 billion for two years and Kyiv's stated need of €70 billion for defense spending alone shows that the question of additional funding remains open. It is not yet known how EU countries will resolve their disagreements and whether Ukraine will receive the planned $52.6 billion in international aid in 2027.
