The key facts
- Collins (73) faces Democrat Troy Jackson (58) in the November 3, 2026 election; Maine is critical to the Democratic path to a Senate majority.
- About a third of Maine voters are unaffiliated with either party; the state is the most dependent on heating fuel, and diesel and heating oil prices have risen sharply.
- Polls show an approximate tie; in 2020 Collins trailed in polls but won.
A Race That Matters for the Whole Country
In the state of Maine, where early snow has already fallen, 73-year-old Republican Senator Susan Collins, who has held her seat for three decades, is waging, in AFP's words, 'the race of her life' — its outcome could affect the balance of power in the country amid the president's low national approval ratings and rising fuel prices ahead of winter. Her rival is 58-year-old Troy Jackson, a former logger who became a politician. The stakes are high: Maine is critical to any Democratic chance of a Senate majority. Democrats are forecast to win the House of Representatives elections on November 3, but to stop Trump's right-wing agenda, including his right to appoint Supreme Court justices, they also need the Senate.
The Electorate and the Mood
About a third of Maine voters are not affiliated with any party; since independents nationwide lean against Trump, this could work in Jackson's favor. Most voters interviewed by AFP agreed that Collins had successfully brought federal funding to the state, while the newcomer Jackson would achieve less. Nevertheless, according to 80-year-old retired schoolteacher Louise Beckett, the 'perfect storm' of national problems — the rising cost of living, the war with Iran, and accusations of widespread corruption by Trump — could finally doom Collins. 'She does a lot for the state of Maine,' Beckett said at an anti-Trump 'No Kings' rally, 'but this is much, much bigger than the state of Maine. It's about our democracy, about our Constitution.'
A Split on the Ground
Both candidates come from the sparsely populated, wooded northern county of Aroostook on the Canadian border, where the main topics are logging, hunting, cross-border trade — and now politics and the price of fuel. Heated arguments flare up at the Rock's Family Diner in Fort Kent. The split is visible even in Jackson's home village of Allagash, population 227, where red Collins campaign signs stand outside some homes. Hilton Hufford, 68, a retired logger and moose-hunting guide, supports his fellow townsman Jackson but noted: 'My sisters and my brother are on the other side.' He believes Jackson would be better able to stand up to Trump in Washington.
Collins's Arguments and Experts' Assessments
Collins's main argument is that, as a Republican, she has already proven sufficiently independent from Trump's most extreme political moves. Ron Schmidt, a professor of political science at the University of Southern Maine, told AFP: 'The most remarkable thing she manages to do is shield herself from the unpopularity of her own party's president,' adding that even voters who are not sympathetic to her feel that 'the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.' At the same time, some experts consider Collins vulnerable because of soaring diesel and heating oil prices — Maine is the US state most dependent on heating oil, and residents were outraged over how households on fixed incomes would suffer this winter.
The State's Paradoxes and the Polls
Maine has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, but it is not a Democratic stronghold either: voters regularly elect Republicans to Congress. In Collins's hometown of Caribou, brewery owner and her supporter Shawn Pelletier acknowledged that the senator faces 'a lot of headwind,' but noted voters' loyalty: 'My father is a staunch Democrat, and he has a Susan Collins sign on his lawn.' Brandon Lane, 37, owner of Allagash Guide Service, called Collins's work for the state part of her appeal, including negotiating exemptions for Canadian goods like road salt: 'With Susan Collins, you know what you're getting.' Polls show the candidates running mostly neck and neck, but Maine is notoriously difficult to poll accurately, and Collins is a 'survivor': in 2020 she trailed her Democratic rival in pre-election polls but then won.
