The key facts

  • ISW: Iran attacked at least 24 commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz over two weeks; UKMTO reported at least seven more incidents from Monday to Wednesday.
  • The aircraft carriers George Washington and George HW Bush are simultaneously operating in the Arabian Sea; a possible transfer of about 9,000 service members with the Theodore Roosevelt grouping is reported.
  • Iranian military officials and Trump allow for escalation; Trump did not rule out intensifying strikes after the November 3 midterm elections.

Attacks on shipping continue

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Thursday that Iran attacked at least 24 commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz over a two-week period. The British organization Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors the security of commercial shipping, reported at least seven additional incidents between Monday and Wednesday. According to ISW, citing an American military official, the Iranian navy has adapted to significant damage to its radars by using small vessels and observers to identify targets. This, according to analysts, shows that Iran retains the ability to attack shipping despite US strikes on its military infrastructure.

Iranian warnings

In recent days, statements from senior military officials have been heard in Tehran. Major General Mostafa Izadi, deputy commander of the IRGC, said on Thursday that Iran 'is advancing with force and is ready to conduct the most powerful operations.' Guard spokesman Hossein Mohibi said on Wednesday that a new war against Iran 'would be irrational for the US,' but 'the possibility of such a conflict absolutely exists.' Army commander Amir Hatami said the armed forces are ready 'for any battle' and warned that an attack on Iranian infrastructure would entail proportionate strikes on Israeli and allied targets. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei said in an interview with Press TV on Sunday that American targets, including data centers and AI infrastructure, would be 'within reach' in the event of a resumption of hostilities, and called Washington's latest diplomatic response insufficient.

Buildup of the US naval presence

The US Naval Institute confirmed on Tuesday that the aircraft carriers George Washington and George HW Bush are operating in the Arabian Sea. The Bush returned to the region after a port call in Phuket, Thailand, while the George Washington earlier replaced the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. The simultaneous presence of two aircraft carriers is significant but does not in itself signal an imminent operation, given the regular rotation cycle. CENTCOM published images of an F-15E aerial refueling, flights from the George Washington, and the takeoff of an F-35B from the amphibious ship Boxer. According to CENTCOM, by October 5 US forces had rerouted 130 commercial vessels as part of a maritime blockade of Iran — this figure comes only from the American military and has not been independently verified.

Possible intensification of strikes and troop transfer

President Donald Trump, in an interview earlier this month, allowed for the intensification of airstrikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, without disclosing military plans. Asked about the possible renewed use of the GBU-43/B bomb ('mother of all bombs'), he did not reject the idea, noting that it 'is not nuclear, it's just a very big bomb.' Trump also said that future negotiations on nuclear disarmament with Iran, involving Russia and China, are possible. The specialized account IntelSky reported on Wednesday that the number of American tanker-refueling aircraft sorties in the first 14 days of October was approximately 50% higher than the September daily figure; these data have not been independently verified. On October 1, reports appeared about the dispatch of about 9,000 service members and sailors with the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group and an amphibious group led by the Makin Island; an anonymous American official told AP that the total number of American sailors and marines in the region may exceed 20,000. According to the Naval Institute as of Wednesday, the Theodore Roosevelt had not yet reached the Arabian Sea.

Israeli reports

Israel's Channel 12 reported on Thursday, citing security sources, that Western countries have recorded new and unusual military movements inside Iran, but current events do not necessarily require immediate military action. The channel also reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed recent events.