The key facts

  • According to the NYT, striking the three largest cities would require about 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones and 150 guided aerial bombs
  • If successful, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa could lose about 90% of their power capacity and heating supply
  • Ukraine's vulnerability is linked to a shortage of Patriot missiles amid reduced American aid

Captured plan for the winter campaign

According to The New York Times, Russia expects to force Ukraine to capitulate in the coming winter by disabling its power grid and depriving Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa of electricity, heating and water. The outlet has reviewed a plan of the Russian government captured by the Ukrainian side and shown to European allies in September. According to the document, to deprive Ukraine's three largest cities of water supply, electricity and heating, Russia would need about 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones and 150 guided aerial bombs. Russian military strategists believe that a month-long series of strikes of such intensity will destroy Ukraine's power system.

State of the power grid and possible consequences

In the fifth year of the war, Ukrainian power plants are no longer operating at full capacity due to previous strikes, and each new hit quickly knocks them out. Thus, three combined heat and power plants that supplied Kyiv before the war with a combined capacity of about 1.3 GW now have only about 500 MW. If the plan works, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa could lose about 90% of their power capacity, heating supply would fall by 90%, and there could be disruptions in water supply and sewage operation.

Assessment of the chances of success

The calculation behind Russia's bet, the NYT notes, is largely tied to Ukraine's shortage of air defense means — above all missiles for Patriot systems, without which the Ukrainian armed forces are almost unable to defend themselves against ballistic missiles. Analysts believe Moscow's chances of success in an air campaign are now higher than at any other point in the war: Ukraine's missile defense has been 'shaken' by the reduction in American aid, the Russian arsenal of missiles and drones has become more powerful and effective, and the energy infrastructure has been weakened by the cumulative effect of years of strikes. Therefore, the likelihood that Moscow will agree to the energy truce regularly proposed by Kyiv is assessed as very low. 'They have only one lever of pressure left on the Ukrainians — air strikes. They have nothing else,' said Harry Nedelcu, director of the consulting company Rasmussen Global.