The key facts

  • Carney at the Calgary rally: 'some beyond our borders are working to break us so they can own us' — without directly mentioning the US or Trump
  • Monday's vote is not a direct independence referendum: it will decide whether the Alberta government begins a legal process toward such a referendum
  • According to polls, less than a quarter of Alberta's roughly 5 million residents want to secede; separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre told AFP that 'there is no hostility toward America here'

Carney's warning on the eve of the vote

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke at a pre-Canada Day rally in Calgary ahead of a vote that will determine whether the western province of Alberta begins a legal process toward secession. 'The world has become more dangerous and divided. Some beyond our borders are working to break us so that they can own us,' Carney said, without directly naming the US or President Donald Trump. According to Deutsche Welle, this is not Carney's first such statement: it came amid a trade war between Washington and Ottawa and Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st US state. Carney's drive to reduce Canada's dependence on the US, the outlet notes, irritates Trump.

What the Alberta vote decides

Monday's vote, as DW explains, is not a direct independence referendum. The province, which holds the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves, will vote on whether to remain a province or instruct the government to begin a legal process toward a secession referendum. Polls show that less than a quarter of Alberta's roughly 5 million residents want to leave Canada. Residents of the province have long expressed dissatisfaction with Liberal governments in Ottawa — from immigration and federal power issues to the management of the oil industry.

Acknowledging problems and a caution

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, acknowledged: 'The frustrations that many Albertans have felt are real,' adding that Ottawa made them feel 'as if our resources do not belong to us.' At the same time, he urged people not to use the vote as a 'message' to the federal government: 'Do not let yourselves be fooled by the idea that you can

The separatists' position and ties to the US

Mitch Sylvestre, who leads the separatist organization Alberta Prosperity Project, told AFP that US interests 'play no role' in Alberta 'until we win and become the government' — then he would ensure free trade. 'There is no hostility toward America here,' he said, adding that he sees no reason to stop trading with the world's largest economy. According to DW, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta a 'natural partner' of the United States, and Alberta Prosperity Project leaders held several meetings at the State Department.