The key facts

  • Netanyahu's bloc and the Jewish opposition are tied at 51 seats each out of 120; 61 are needed for a government
  • 55% prefer a unity government over new elections given an uncertain outcome
  • Eisenkot leads Netanyahu in the race for prime minister: 48% vs 41%

Parity of blocs ahead of the October 27 election

A Maariv poll published on Friday, 11 days before the general election on October 27, showed that the bloc of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Jewish opposition would each receive 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset if the vote were held today. Arab deputies, according to the forecast, would receive 14 seats, and the 'Reservists' party four, with no indication of which bloc it would support. Forming a government requires the support of at least 61 deputies; otherwise Israel may face new elections. Both camps — Netanyahu and the main Jewish opposition parties — reject relying on Arab parties in forming a government.

Breakdown by party

According to the poll, Netanyahu's bloc would break down as follows: Likud — 18 seats, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power — 8, the religious Torah and Judaism — 8, Shas — 7, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism — 6, and Ofer Winter's Amcha Israel — 4. The Jewish opposition: Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party — 21, Naftali Bennett's Together — 13, Yair Golan's Democrats — 9, and Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Our Home — 8. Among the Arab parties, the Joint List led by Yousef Jabarin would receive 8 seats, and Mansour Abbas's United Arab List (Raam) — 6. The poll projects 4 seats for the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel, while the survey does not determine which camp it would support.

Prime ministerial candidate ratings and attitudes toward a unity government

On the preferred candidate for prime minister, former army chief of staff Eisenkot maintains his lead over Netanyahu: 48% vs 41%. Israelis do not elect the prime minister directly — the post goes to the politician able to form a coalition with the support of at least 61 deputies. With an uncertain election outcome, 55% of Israelis prefer a national unity government over new elections, 27% favor a repeat vote, and 18% are undecided. The camps differ: among opposition voters, 54% support a unity government provided it is led by a representative of their bloc; among coalition supporters, 36% support a unity government led by Netanyahu, while 32% would prefer new elections in the absence of a clear result.

Methodology

According to Maariv, the poll was conducted by the private Lazar Research institute using random sampling among 700 Israelis, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.