The key facts

  • Trump is waging a trade war and says Canada should join the US; Bessent called Alberta a 'natural partner'
  • A network of AI videos about separatism gained over 40 million views, linked to people from the Netherlands, motivated by profit
  • Polls: about a quarter of Albertans support the referendum; the vote is scheduled for October 19

Foreign Influence in the Spotlight

Preparations for a referendum in the Canadian province of Alberta on a future independence vote are accompanied by concerns about foreign influence and AI manipulation online. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that he expects foreign states — 'including the US' — not to interfere in Canadian elections. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is waging a trade war and has repeatedly stated that Canada should be incorporated into the United States. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta a 'natural partner,' and the Globe and Mail newspaper reported contacts between separatist leaders and American Republican operatives. Canada's Foreign Interference Transparency Commissioner reported in September that his office is 'aware of the concern' about the activity of non-Canadians around the referendum. The New Democratic Party (NDP) is pushing for parliamentary debate on the issue. NDP MP Heather McPherson told AFP: 'None of this can be viewed in isolation.'

Musk and Pro-Russian Activity

Close allies of Trump are also intervening in the online discussion about independence. Last week, Elon Musk, after a separatist party's victory in Quebec, wrote on X: 'They would be better off. Alberta and Saskatchewan should also separate.' Brian McQuinn, co-director of the Centre for Artificial Intelligence, Data and Conflict at the University of Regina, told AFP that it would be 'folly' to underestimate the impact of such statements on Canada. According to him, he has also observed Russia-linked activity promoting the most extreme aspects of the independence debate. This may not directly affect voters, but it raises the temperature: 'If the fire is big and you fan it, it really does get bigger.' Separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre told AFP that American interests 'play no role' in Alberta 'until we win and become the government,' and expressed confidence in his side's high chances.

AI Content and Distrust of Results

Polls estimate support for the future referendum at only about a quarter of Alberta's population. Aengus Bridgman, director of McGill University's Media Ecosystem Observatory (MEO), considers it 'quite likely' that the outcome of the referendum will be a community believing the election was stolen or at least unfair. According to his data, a significant portion of the separatist discussion online comes from genuine independence supporters whose content is amplified by mass use of AI, creating an impression of better resourcing. MEO also reported a network of AI-generated videos about separatism that gained over 40 million views and were linked to people from the Netherlands; according to Bridgman, they were motivated by profit rather than manipulation. Even when AI content is not misleading, its very presence instills in voters the idea of illegitimacy and heightens anxiety. Some separatists are motivated by grievances from the pandemic era: many independence influencers are connected to the 'truck convoy' that occupied Ottawa in 2022. 'Their proof of (Ottawa's) authoritarianism is the COVID lockdowns,' Bridgman noted.

Doubts About the Electoral System

Bridgman and political analyst Lori Williams noted widespread frustration and distrust of Alberta's election agency. Williams pointed out that the large number of mail-in and advance ballots could become grounds for complaints, and that anxiety is more widespread than among separatists alone, given the complex ballot with nine questions in addition to the non-binding separation question. By election day, AFP had already debunked narratives about fraud with spoiled ballots and voting by non-citizens. According to Williams' forecast, the long-term effect of attempts to influence Alberta voters is preparing many to question the results of October 19.