The key facts
- MI5 is directing more resources to countering state threats than during the Cold War — Ken McCallum
- Germany and Estonia accused Russia of hybrid attacks in August
- Seven men have been arrested over the RAF Fairford incident, all released on police bail
Russia — the 'aggressor number one'
Ken McCallum, Director General of the UK counter-intelligence agency MI5, delivered his annual speech at Thames House in London on Tuesday, 13 October. He said that Russia remains the 'aggressor number one' amid growing threats from foreign states, and that MI5 is now directing more resources to countering state threats than during the Cold War. According to him, the Russian military and intelligence services are once again ramping up hybrid warfare, seeking to stay below the threshold of Article 5 of the NATO charter, which, in his words, it would be unwise for them to cross.
Accusations by Germany and Estonia
In recent months, a number of states, including Germany and Estonia, have accused Moscow of hybrid attacks on European territory. Berlin blamed Russia for a drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport in August, while Tallinn said Russian intelligence services ordered the arson of the defence company Milrem Robotics, also in August. McCallum called such incidents part of Russia's plan to 'destabilise' European countries against the backdrop of the full-scale war against Ukraine that has been ongoing since February 2022. He noted that Russia's military gains in Ukraine are 'minimal and monstrously costly', and that after nearly a thousand expulsions of Russian officers, Moscow's traditional covert presence has weakened, so the Kremlin, in his words, is 'desperately trying to recruit criminals' to carry out tasks.
The UK government's position
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the country will continue to support Ukraine 'one hundred percent', despite Moscow's warnings of 'consequences'. Last week he again reaffirmed 'full solidarity' with Kyiv and stressed that the government intends to tighten sanctions against Russia.
Threats from Iran
In the same speech, McCallum touched on Iran, calling it a state 'seeking to outsource violence on UK territory to contractors', and noted that Tehran intends to expand its hybrid campaign. According to him, the Iranian authorities use criminal intermediaries to intimidate opposition figures, Iranian media outlets and Israeli targets. Over the past year, Iran-related operations have led to more than 50 arrests. A significant portion of the aggression, according to the MI5 chief, was directed against British Jewish communities, but Iran also seeks to attack 'more sophisticated targets, such as military installations'.
The RAF Fairford incident
McCallum's statements came after Burnham told Parliament on Monday that the incident at the British airbase, which hosts part of the US Air Force, was 'almost certainly planned' by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). On 27 September, five men were detained near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire on suspicion of offences involving explosive substances, and were then re-arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. Later, a 25-year-old citizen of the United Kingdom and Iran was detained in London, and on 6 October a 22-year-old Briton, both on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. According to the UK's counter-terrorism policing, all seven men remain on police bail while specialists 'continue to pursue all possible lines of enquiry'.
