The key facts

  • GDP growth: 7.8% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027 (previously 6.8% and 6%)
  • Inflation: 6.9% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027 (in the April report — 6.8% and 5%)
  • Unemployment will fall from 4.8% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2027

IMF raises forecasts for Uzbekistan's economic growth

The International Monetary Fund improved its forecast for Uzbekistan's economic growth: for 2026 — from 6.8% to 7.8%, and for 2027 — from 6% to 6.5%. The updated estimates are given in a report published on October 12, Kun.uz reports.

Inflation forecasts revised

The Fund also adjusted its inflation expectations. In 2026, prices, according to the new estimate, will rise by 6.9%, and in 2027 — by 5.7%. The April report assumed that inflation would be 6.8% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, meaning the forecast was raised for both years.

Unemployment, according to the Fund's estimate, will decline

The unemployment rate, according to updated estimates, will decrease: for 2025 it is estimated at 4.8%, in 2026 it will be 4.3%, and in 2027 — 3.8%.

Current account deficit will grow

The forecast for the current account deficit of the balance of payments was also raised. According to updated estimates, the negative balance will be 5.1% of GDP in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027. For comparison: in 2025 the deficit was estimated at 3.9%.