The key facts

  • The 'theory of victory' concept was presented on October 12 in Warsaw; stages: Block, Blunt, Break.
  • The goal is the military defeat of attacking forces, not the strategic defeat of the aggressor state.
  • According to DW, the concept takes the threat from Russia into account; Grinkevich did not publicly mention Russia.

Presentation of the concept

As DW reports, citing a publication, the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee General Grinkevich presented the concept, named the 'theory of victory', on October 12 at a security conference in Warsaw. His speech lasted about 15 minutes.

Three stages of action

Actions against a probable aggressor are divided into three stages: Block — stopping the attack; Blunt — breaking the momentum of the offensive and preventing further advance; Break — if necessary, crushing the attacking troops as well as the enemy's supporting and command military systems.

Preparation and first steps

According to Grinkevich's explanation, signs of preparation for an attack should be detected in advance through intelligence, surveillance systems and analysis. This makes it possible to assess the intentions of a probable adversary and to deploy NATO forces in time so that the alliance is not caught off guard. If an attack occurs, at the first stage the main task falls to the ground forces on the forward defensive lines: they must stop the offensive, contain and destroy enemy units. At the same time, the air force and naval forces, supported by space and cyber assets, must as quickly as possible establish superiority in the air and at sea.

Further actions

If the attacks continue, the plan is to halt the enemy's further advance through coordinated actions in different directions, high-tech sensors and autonomous weapon systems, and the initiative should pass to NATO. If the adversary continues the offensive even after that or commits additional forces, the stage of disabling its military system follows: disrupting supply routes, destroying command systems and depriving the attacking units of combat capability.

Goal and context

Grinkevich emphasized that NATO's goal is not to inflict a strategic defeat on the adversary state, but to crush by military means the forces attacking the alliance's countries. According to DW, in his speech the commander never once publicly named Russia; however, as the outlet notes, the concept was developed primarily with a possible threat from Moscow in mind. Grinkevich himself stated: 'I do not believe that conflict is inevitable or could begin in the very near future. That is not the case.'